[SMM Analysis] Impact of US Tariffs on China on the Export Methods and Prices of China's ESS Battery Cells to the US - Exploration of Three Methods: "Direct Export from China, Re-export via Malaysia, and US Domestic Production" (Part III)

This article is the third installment in a series exploring the impact of US tariffs on China on the export methods and pricing of Chinese ESS battery cells to the US, examining three approaches: "direct export from China, re-export via Malaysia, and local production in the US." The previous article mentioned that despite the increasing uncertainty surrounding current US tariffs on China, the existing ESS tariff measures in effect are divided into three periods: May 14, 2025, August 13, 2025, and January 1, 2026, with tariffs set at 40.9%, 64.9%, and 82.4%, respectively.

This article, the third in the series, aims to analyze the impact of price changes on Chinese-made ESS battery cells exported directly to the US, re-exported via Malaysia, and potentially produced locally in the US using LFP for ESS after January 1, 2026. Some data values are theoretical, which may result in seemingly high outcomes. The author will explain the reasons for each data value in detail to enable readers to substitute relevant data independently for more targeted conclusions.

Taking domestically produced 280Ah LFP ESS battery cells as an example:

The data sources and changes for each stage are shown in the table below: Direct export from China to the US:

The data sources and changes for each stage are shown in the table below: Re-export from China via Malaysia to the US:

The data sources and changes for each stage are shown in the table below: Locally produced LFP battery cells in the US:

Based on the above calculations, assuming a direct export price of 0.673 yuan/Wh for battery cells from China after January 1, 2026, re-exporting via Malaysia offers a 16.2% price advantage. The cost of directly producing ESS battery cells in the US may also provide a relative competitive advantage under hefty tariffs, being 5.1% lower than the price of directly purchasing Chinese battery cells.

The above summary is organized as follows:

Note: Some of the calculated data were obtained through discussions and processing with the market, while more data were sourced from the average prices at various price points on the SMM official website. Additionally, in current practical operations, the cost increases resulting from US tariffs on China are mainly borne by overseas customers. Therefore, the calculation results in this article may be higher than the actual transaction prices.

SMM New Energy Industry Research Department

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lv Yanlin 021-20707875

Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711

Zhang Haohan 021-51666752

Wang Zihan 021-51666914

Wang Jie 021-51595902

Xu Yang 021-51666760

Chen Bolin 021-51666836